Life is Like Riding a Bicycle

September 5, 2025

“Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving.”

Albert Einstein

“Some might say they don’t believe in heaven, go and tell it to the man who lives in hell.”

Oasis

Balance > Perspective > Openness >Acceptance> Calm> Joy > Gratitude

I attempt to follow the above path. Sometimes I do it well, and other times I don’t. It’s helpful to be married to a wife that has an incredible sense of balance in life and can help me get to “balance” when I cannot find my way. We all need someone we trust to keep ourselves accountable.

“Heaven is a place on Earth”

Belinda Carlisle

I just need this problem to go away

A year ago, at this time, I had incredible back pain. I could only stand or lay down, but sitting was horrible. The pain was so debilitating, and I tried everything to make the pain go away: painkillers, steroids, physical therapies, acupuncture, chiropractic treatment, massage, and a huge amount of research. It was beyond frustration, and I became depressed. I just wanted to get back to exercising like I used to, to go on living my life, and I just wanted to be pain free.

As we get older, we usually learn a thing or two about our bodies. They change; they wear out. No matter how much we try and fight, our bodies are going to decay. So, although I wanted to go back to exercising in my normal routine, I realized that was not going to be possible.

In the end, I had to get to the point of letting go of what I wanted. It wasn’t going to happen. Then everything took a positive turn: I met an experienced physical therapist, and I took some steroids. I changed my exercise regime to focus on balance.

Not only did my pain dissipate, I strengthened my body in ways I never knew possible. I was working out less, maintaining my weight, becoming stronger, pain free, drug free, and my sense of dread became hope. Win, win, win!

Additionally, as many of you know, I am passionate about skiing, and I thought that would no longer be possible. But not only was I able to ski this past winter, I found myself skiing bump runs at a better level than I have ever skied in my lifetime. How was this possible?

It’s possible because I found balance, both physically and emotionally. I let go of “my way” of doing things as being the only way, and I accepted that there are many things I have yet to learn. Now I am reaping benefits that I never imagined; funny that!

We do not have all the answers

Often, we know where we want to go. We have a mission, we set goals, and we have a general direction of what we want to achieve. However, we must realize that we do not always understand how we will get there. But if we can keep a balanced perspective, let go of our need to control, keep an open mind, and have faith that the answers will present themselves, we can move forward calmly, and we can get to a peaceful resolution. But it isn’t always going to be what we expect, what we want, or what we think we need. We can still find a path to serenity, joy, and gratitude for what we have.

When our feelings dominate or control issues dominate, try to let them go

A trusted advisor and friend of mine used to say to me: “Joe, the cemetery is full of indispensable people.” It’s so true. Sometimes we can think that life won’t go on unless we are a part of it. But do we really think that our kids won’t live their lives if we aren’t here? Will our company or job function fall apart without me? Will my friends or family stop enjoying themselves if I’m not around?

Newsflash: we are not that important. Life will go on without us! As it should.

So don’t let our feelings, politics, or how we see ourselves be the most important thing, because it’s not. No matter how much we might think our strategy, our plan, or our politics are the right way, we should accept the fact that not everyone else around us is dumb nor callous. I firmly believe that most people are inherently good; at least most of the people I meet.

That isn’t to say we cannot and should not pass judgement on what is right and what is wrong. I have written many times about universal truths, and to be truly human we should pursue these universal truths.

Most of us have more in common than not. We want positive outcomes for others. There will always be bad actors on the extremes, people that lose sight of the universal truths. Society can lose sight for a time as well, and we have seen that throughout history. There are governments today that feel that these universal human truths are expendable in their pursuit of power and “stability”. It is important to have faith that ultimately, humanity will course correct towards those universal truths, and good will win out over evil.

Joe, Open your eyes. You should worry more!

I suspect people still believe I see the world through rose colored glasses. However, as I have written many times in these pages, part of my own wealth was built during times of considerable tumult. Where I was worried about the state of the world and markets (the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis), others were relaxed.

It’s not that I do not see the worries and concerns that you see today, it’s just that the probability weights I give to some of the current inputs and prevailing narratives are not quite as concerning as the level of noise given to them.

Recently, people that I’ve had conversations with about financial markets say things like: “there are so many uncertainties, and predicting the market is going to be tricky going forward.”

My reply usually goes something like this:

• There are always uncertainties in the market, and we adjust our portfolios for this accordingly. Nothing is new here from my perspective.

• Predicting the market is not only tricky, on a one-year basis, it’s nearly impossible in longer time frames. Yet, with a proper plan, we try to navigate this effectively for you. This is our job. Making “expert” predictions is a fools’ errand.

• Any expert trying hard to convince you of their view is trying to sell you something. We adjust portfolios based on the changing probabilities and opportunities and in line with the goals we are trying to achieve for our wealth over time.

Current Narratives

Let’s go through a few of the current topics, but before I do, it may be worth pointing out that I find much of Donald Trump’s behavior terrible and unexplainable. However, I don’t think my opinion matters much in my attempt to navigate markets. I am trying to see current reality, probabilities vs. prevailing consensus, and remain focused on investing in countries that are likely to preserve and grow our wealth into the future.

Narrative (1) Trump is leading us toward a fascist future for the USA. He is acting like Hitler, Stalin, and other despots throughout history. This will irrevocably damage the United States and our standing in the world.

• He is extremely aggressive. He rubs people the wrong way, and if you cross him, he will make you pay politically. It is certainly true that he is taking executive power as far as it will go. He learned a few things from his last administration, and he was well prepared to go hard and fast. He is consistently challenging the judicial branch.

  • But he is not the only President to be aggressive with executive power. Biden and Obama were also very aggressive in their use of executive orders and actions.

  • The courts will be challenged, but will he abide by the ultimate judgements of the judicial branch?

  • The probability is high that the US Constitution will prevail, and the short-term noise is mainly that.

  • Trump’s term ends in 2028. If he tries to stay in office beyond that, it’s a problem. It’s also a very low probability.

  • The demand internationally for the ideals that the USA represents will remain in demand long after Trump is gone.

So, even if everything he is doing is only to enrich himself and his family, I believe it’s highly unlikely the USA would allow it beyond 2028. Yes, people are quiet and praise him and go along with his program for now, but that is politics. This happens in government and the private sector. If anyone’s family member becomes president of the United States, it usually comes with some advantages. I have never seen a situation where this wasn’t the case.

Narrative (2) Trump policies on tariffs, and the way he treats our allies is going to erode the USA standing in the world. China will rise and be the new power that countries gravitate towards.

• China could rise further, but the world has changed quite a lot. The restrictions on selling chips to China, and the pushback against China abusing the world trading system and market economies of the west will present new challenges. They are already dealing with population decline, property price decline, lack of social safety net, and rising unrest due to unemployment and lack of trust in the government. As untrustworthy as Trump may seem, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seems far worse.

  • Aligning with Russia, North Korea, and Iran is a red flag, and I suspect this isn’t lost on other countries that these governments do not represent what most people desire.

  • The narratives and lies that these countries spin domestically and globally to ensure their power may catch up with the country over time (yes you can make the same argument about the US government, but it will be held accountable through voting).

  • Trump may go after political opponents, but the CCP will go after opponents and their innocent family members. It’s a much higher level of fear and intimidation.

  • Trump won’t be president forever, but the CCP will continue to exist.

  • The mistakes being made by the Chinese leadership today (we all make mistakes) will be amplified because the Chinese economy cannot dynamically adjust away from the directives of the CCP and its goals of Marxism. In a fast-changing technological world, I see this as a weakness.

• On tariffs, Trump seems to be making the case that other countries cannot expect the USA to pay for your defense, protection, and access to the U.S. without paying for it. Does it alter the world trading system? Yes, but this system was and is being abused, and this isn’t sustainable without significant risks. Doesn’t the USA benefit from free trade? Yes, but not if whole industries are being ceded to state run economies whose ideals do not align with the ideals of the USA. It makes sense to address these issues.

  • Other countries do not like these changes, but there is a high probability that countries acquiesce and deal with new terms because the USA is in a far greater position of leverage. The USA is also, despite Trump, a more a trusted international partner than China.

  • This could be a long-term positive in reducing the US deficit.

  • It could also cause some EU de-regulation. Trump was the catalyst for EU countries finally increasing spending on defense budgets after all.

So, although we can say Trump policies are disruptive, they annoy our trading partners, and our allies, it is not clear that this annoyance will be enough to gravitate toward the alternative countries which are diametrically opposed to our belief system. After Trump is gone, and perhaps before, we could settle into a new normal with western liberal democratic countries. There will likely be a new normal for the World Trading system which may or may not include WTO enforcement.

Narrative (3) Trump is eroding the independence of the Federal Reserve, and this will have negative impacts for the future.

• It is fair to say that a central bank independent of government policy and spending is a good idea for long term economic stability. However, central banks are never fully “independent” of politics. Central bank governors always bring their own biases and judgements which are likely to have a large impact on monetary policy. Trump is clearly and aggressively trying to influence the Fed by nominating people sympathetic to his views.

  • It should lead to lower rates in the near term.

  • This may or may not lead to a problem with inflation and long-term interest rates.

  • Lower rates should be positive for equity markets.

  • Consider the fact that Jerome Powell left interest rates at zero percent for all of 2021. I am on record during 2021 describing how misguided that policy appeared. Was it politics? Bad judgement due to Covid fear? I don’t know, but it certainly didn’t make sense to me at the time.

  • We found out in 2022 and 2023 how bad a policy error that was through inflation, and I suspect Jerome Powell is now much more cautious about lowering interest rates.

  • So, if the Fed cuts rates by an extra 25 or 50 basis points more than it otherwise would because of political pressure, it doesn’t worry me much. The policy in 2021 seems far worse.

  • Fully eroding central bank independence can take a decade or longer, and it may not happen at all once political administration changes. There is plenty of time to adapt if it happens at all.

It is not clear to me that an erosion of Fed independence on the margin will be negative for equities, growth, or inflation. There are many other factors at play which are likely to be more important in the near term.

Back to Balance

Slow and steady wins the race in life and in portfolio management. When we are in balance, we can proceed calmly and with certainty of purpose.

Some of our ideas have worked out well this year, and some of them haven’t. I purchase every company in our portfolios thinking it could double in a year or two, but I know that isn’t going to happen.

The world is an uncertain place. Certain assets will do better than others; some countries will grow more; some sectors and companies will do better compared to others. We diversify to reflect that uncertainty. We work hard to gain whatever edge we can by assessing probable outcomes, and we adjust our portfolio accordingly. It’s not “all in” or “all out”; we do not heavily concentrate in one sector, geography or company.

This process works for us because we desire slow and steady balanced growth. We desire to get the most return for the least amount of risk, and we are always focused on this goal. It’s not enough to focus on returns without assessing your risk.

To us, when the world looks calm and easy to predict, it’s usually time to worry. When everyone is worried about uncertainty, it’s usually time to hunt for opportunities. The trick is to have the ability and faith to stay with our process and our plan, be open-minded, and make changes on the margin when circumstances change. We love the opportunities today that will help us meet our future goals.

Portfolio Changes

Changes to the portfolio in August were not dramatic.

• We sold some companies to harvest some tax loss, and we realized profit on some companies that have had dramatic price appreciation since April.

• We originally thought buying the long end of the US Treasury bond market would be a good strategy, but we have since abandoned that view.

• We have added some new companies to many of our portfolios because we find they are trading at attractive prices relative to their cash flow, market position, and growth prospects.

Do not wait for leaders, do it alone, person to person.

Mother Theresa

Thank you for taking the time to read. As always, we welcome your questions, comments, and especially disagreements with any view expressed here.

Joe

i

i Investment advice offered through Stratos Wealth Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Stratos Wealth Advisors, LLC and August Wealth Advisors are separate entities.

Trading instructions sent via email, fax or voicemail will not be honored. There is no assurance that these messages can be retrieved on a timely basis, nor is there any sure method of confirming the customers identity.

The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No reader should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence.

The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but August Wealth Advisors makes no representation about their timeliness, accuracy or completeness. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.