Long Term Thinking

March 1, 2026

Long Term Thinking – Iran, China and Technology Developments

Before we begin, I want to express my deepest gratitude to the families we serve at August Wealth. Entrusting someone with your financial legacy and your future is a profound act of faith, and it is a responsibility we carry with the utmost respect and care. We aspire to the highest levels of preparation, commitment, and expertise in our mission to serve you and your family in all circumstances.

The Long Game for a Higher Probability of Success

When it comes to your financial future, most of the industry focuses on predictions. They try to guess what the market will do tomorrow, next month, or next year. But the truth is simpler: the future is unknowable.

Instead of chasing predictions, our strategy is built on probabilities. We don’t try to be psychic; we try to be prepared. By focusing on the variables within our control, we tilt the scales of success in your favor.

Here are the four pillars we use to increase your probability of a successful outcome:

1. Focus on the Essentials

Think of your portfolio like your physical health. You don’t need "bio-hacks" or secret supplements to be fit; you need exercise, nutrition, sleep, and stress management. Investing is the same. By ignoring the daily "noise" of financial news and focusing on core principles—consistency, low costs, and long-term thinking, you create the highest statistical probability of reaching your goals.

2. The Power of a Bespoke Plan

A portfolio without a purpose is just a collection of tickers. We start by defining exactly what money means to you and what you are trying to achieve. When we build a resilient, custom plan around your specific life, it becomes much easier to stay disciplined. Honesty in the planning phase leads to less stress in the execution phase.

3. Diversification as a Shield

Because we acknowledge that no one knows which country or sector will outperform next year, we don’t put all our eggs in one basket. By diversifying across different asset classes, geographies, and time horizons, we reduce the "bumps" in the road (volatility) and ensure you are positioned to capture growth wherever it happens to emerge.

4. Exploiting Market Emotions

The broader market is often driven by short-term fear or greed. We see these emotional cycles as opportunities. By staying rational when others are panicking, we can identify high-quality assets that are being neglected or undervalued. Buying into these opportunities when they are out of favor significantly increases the probability of long-term outperformance.

Short-term developments in Iran, artificial intelligence, China, and the long term implications

We know the future is uncertain, but we focus on the probability of outcomes. What motivations are of important players, and what is the path of least resistance when it comes to geopolitical and financial market developments.

We first wrote about the increasing likelihood of Israel and the USA pushing for full regime change in Iran during the Biden administration on October 8, 2024. Much has happened in the past 18 months, and the evidence grew over that time. Now it looks inevitable that this will occur from my standpoint.

The Trump administration has clearly demonstrated a pattern of wanting other countries interests to be aligned with the interests of the United States. Developments in Venezuela, Mexico, Cuba, Panama, and now Iran are the most recent examples of this.

Regardless of what you may think of the Trump administration’s actions or the existing narratives in the media, I continue to believe we head toward a more peaceful and prosperous future for those countries and peoples aligned with the United States.

My path of least resistance and other thoughts:

• The various factions of the Revolutionary Guard in Iran, which control large parts of the economy, will be fighting for control, power, and wealth. Those factions aligned with the USA will increase the likelihood of their own well-being, financial success, and political power.

• More middle east countries will normalize relationships with Israel, and the USA will work to improve the lives of Palestinians.

• The longer the Ukraine war goes on, the weaker Russia becomes. This should eventually lead to a more secure Europe, more stable middle east, and Latin America.

• Latin America becomes much more closely aligned with the USA because it’s in their economic interest. Eventually Canada will realize diversification from the USA is futile (Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cheerleading will eventually be subdued).

• The Trump administration is causing Europe to re-think their approach to regulation and security. This should make Europe stronger and pro-economic growth.

• European and USA culture and ideals are closely linked, and the relationship between Europe and the USA will ultimately strengthen. Trump is forcing change, but this will highlight the positive attributes and ideals of the USA and Europe.

• Other countries around the world will want to align with the United States because it will increase their own probability of economic prosperity and power. They may do so begrudgingly at first, but ultimately it makes for good politics as their people’s lives improve.

• CHINA / USA

  • The USA will engage with China as it is an essential part of global supply chains that the USA and the world needs. But the USA will continue its focus on de-risking from China to ensure it aligns with trusted partners, especially when it comes to critical minerals.

  • China desperately needs to sell its manufactured goods to the world. Xi continues to put his country into a position of future weakness. He continues to consolidate power, purges in the military, cracking down on any dissent, and continuing to go insular demonstrates extreme insecurity. China is aging dramatically, asset prices continue to fall, and domestic demand is highly unlikely (just too small) to reengineer the economy without a crisis.

  • The USA may even appear to be amenable to China on the question of Taiwan, but I see the USA defending Taiwan with all its might. Taiwan Semiconductor is an essential global company that must be protected at all costs.

  • Trump and Xi can be “buddies” for the next few years as the relationship works for both the USA (importing of essential supplies, rare earths) and for China (exporting goods to the world to keep their economy growing).

  • China has less ability to destabilize the USA by utilizing Latin America as a proxy, and it will likely be playing more by USA rules on the global economy because it must.

• Artificial Intelligence will continue to explode in usage and adoption.

  • We at August Wealth are utilizing these tools increasingly to become more efficient investors, and to develop internal tools to deliver better and more proactive client solutions.

  • Adoption of these AI tools will start to increase, and this should increase productivity markedly.

  • Picking winners and losers will be extremely hard because change is happening so fast. Diversification will become more essential.

• Lives will be improved with new technologies. Yes, jobs will be lost in areas, and they will be gained in other new industries that we cannot even fathom.

• Inflation is likely to continue to decline.

• The USA fiscal problem is unlikely to be as problematic as the media fears because of the growth in economic prosperity led by the United States and its top companies (many of which are much larger than whole countries).

I could probably go on, but I will leave it there for now.

In summary, I believe investors must participate in rising world growth and the rising fortunes of companies.

China and USA less adversarial, working together in their areas of mutual self-interest, technological change progressing faster than the world has ever known, more safety and security in more countries, less regulation in the United States and Europe.

Investors must ensure they are not left behind!

August Wealth will be there to help you navigate our exciting future.

Best,

Joe

i

i Investment advice offered through August Wealth Advisors.

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