Venezuela and the Changing World

January 5, 2026

"The thing that happens to you is less important than the way you respond to the thing that happens to you."

-Eckhart Tolle

Welcome to 2026

The world is changing, and as usual it presents a myriad of opportunities to grow wealth through disciplined investing.

Before I get to my provocative thoughts below, we must point out that our goal is always the same:

To help you get the most out of life by aiming to preserve and invest your wealth and build confidence around money and investment. We continue to deploy efficient, simplistic, and low-cost solutions to build portfolios we feel will achieve quality returns through time.

To pursue steady returns over many years through challenging markets, one must have a rigorous process. We keep it simple, we keep it liquid, we keep it low cost, and we are willing to pay a reasonable price for assets that produce cash flows across various asset classes and various countries around the globe. The environment is always changing and there is always opportunity in every situation.

All the families we serve have different objectives, varying wealth levels, and pursuits that are important to them. But there are also common needs and desires such as: food, clothing, shelter, safety, security, and the opportunity to live in peace and freedom. And these common needs are the same needs that people all over the world desire. When those needs are not met, humans will fight for them.

Fight or Flight (Fear and Greed):

As I have pointed out in these pages many times before, the personalities in power in the USA are less important than the system of power and its checks and balances. Yes, the system is fragile, it exists in a sort of chaotic harmony which is not always appealing, nor do our brains like change (which feels threatening). The brain’s fight or flight mechanism operates 24/7, and if you fill your brain with noise which seems threatening, your brain will respond. But it can trick you, and it often does. We fool ourselves, we lie to ourselves, and this causes pain. This is why we spend so much time reiterating the importance of being present and rising above the noise. It is of the utmost importance to observe even our own brains and bodies from an objective viewpoint if you are to successfully experience reality.

As Eckhart Tolle says: “people that have a deeper level of awareness, people that are intentional in quieting the mind, in order to just be present. These people can see reality without the clutter of the mind. It can make life richer; it allows for greater joy and success.” He goes on: “When you are awakened, you know that more challenges are inevitable in your life. You're no longer seeking this or that thing, no longer seeking "to be famous" or "to be rich" because you realize that even getting everything you want will not bring happiness. Only a realization that you are connected to everyone and everything, total spaciousness will you have peace and joy. You won't be a victim when things don't go the way you want them to, you just respond to the challenges.”

Why be so philosophical? Because it drives us to further appreciate the present, appreciate our reality, and to use our skills to the best of our ability.

This may give us an edge in navigating an ever-changing, chaotic world, because it’s also a world filled with incredible opportunities.

What we notice:

People feel empowered by artificial intelligence tools and access to information like never before. It builds a false sense of confidence that your views of society and markets are “correct” and others are “wrong”. It leads people to think in black and white (dualistically) instead of in shades of gray (non-dualistically).

Because we know that we do not have all the answers, it gives us an advantage. We live in a multivariate system where everything is interconnected, and asking the right questions is far more important than coming up with the “right” judgements.

Our investment process and philosophy are far more important than providing so-called “expert predictions”!

Excess Speculation

There is a lot of speculation by young people deploying simple strategies and taking aggressive risks in things like overnight options on stocks, leveraged exchange traded funds, or sports betting (especially parlays). In a stock market that always seems to go up, where it appears you can “buy every dip in the market”, you may make money and increase your confidence over time. But if you do not have a rigorous process, you are likely to (eventually) permanently impair your savings or continue to be lucky forever (it happens). As a friend of mine says: “Don’t confuse brains with a bull market.”

Excess speculation and the Ai Bubble

The dualistic thinker may urge a move to cash because of excess speculation. You can’t lose what you don’t bet after all! Except history tells us that isn’t true. As I have argued many times, it is extremely important to protect your wealth and purchasing power against rising goods and asset price inflation across a diversified set of investments. Capping your upside through holding excessive amounts of cash, buying structured notes, call writing, or other volatility selling strategies may make you feel better, but it is arguably a riskier strategy through time. The professional investor may know what I am referring to here.

If you are not invested in a rising market, it will make you poorer over time. Why? An economic system like the USA that grows and prospers will move forward with or without your participation. Just ask anyone that has not been participating in the US equity market since 2020.

Positive or Negative

Yes and Yes!

I have never seen so much change in my lifetime. Technology, politics, energy, power, social interaction, connectivity, etc. Dramatic changes in life usually mean dramatic shifts in markets. Where there are dramatic shifts in markets, there are larger opportunities for wealth creation. To participate in wealth creation, we need to get our risks appropriately balanced to take advantage of opportunities for growth.

Prevailing narratives and thoughts

Speculation in artificial intelligence.

Just because the market has pockets of excess speculation and capital is almost certainly being misallocated in certain areas does not tell us much. Just because people want to compare 1929 to today, or the internet bubble of 2000 to today, does not make it reality. Just because you worry about what might happen in the future does not mean it tells us anything about what reality will look like. Of course, it makes sense to consider the risks, but only in the context of the considerations below.

I am not putting my personal judgement on the thoughts below. I cannot know if it will ultimately be good or bad for the future of the world, I am merely trying to point out what (I believe) is important to consider.

• The USA continues to become more powerful than I ever imagined. This matters a great deal if you desire to grow wealth. I started highlighting this a couple of years ago, but consider the following:

  • The approximate market capitalization of the top 7 USA companies (Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Google, Meta, Amazon) is now nearly the same size ($21 Trillion) as the TOTAL stock market capitalization of Japan, India, Canada, and the UK. The entire market capitalization of China is $13 Trillion.

  • Russia went insular and disengaged from the world. It has weakened dramatically because of the Ukraine war.

  • China went insular, tightening laws and capital controls further, doubling down on dominating supply chains by exporting to the world. Not for profit, but to dominate through power. Shifting to a consumer led model is nearly impossible.

  • China supports Russia, Iran, and North Korea as a counter to US power. This makes logical sense, but the strategy isn’t working well. The influence of these countries is waning rapidly.

  • It appears the US is forcing countries to make a choice between the Chinese system or a US led world. It seems clear that more countries will move closer to a US led system (for pragmatic reasons whether they like it or not).

• Extracting Maduro from Venezuela and taking back US company interests in the oil sector is nothing short of remarkable.

  • The execution of that military operation was nothing short of astounding, and it leads me to believe the US has some very talented people within the current administration and military leadership (thank you to our client IP for his service and to his family for their support).

  • Controlling the dominant driver of growth in an economy determines who controls political power (same for any country around the world). If the oil industry is run well, Venezuela should do well. People want to get on with their lives. Food, clothing, shelter, and prosperity for their children.

  • The leadership in Cuba and Iran will now be increasingly worried about what their near-term future looks like. Perhaps it will make for more peaceful transitions in these countries where current leadership can walk away, and more prosperity for the masses can take hold.

• This appears different from nation building like in Afghanistan and Iraq. This looks like entering into economic agreements where the US has leverage with a country and their economy, AND it potentially benefits the population.

  • The geopolitical experts and politicians that believe this is a continuation of mistakes like Afghanistan and Iraq are likely not recognizing the differences.

• The US financial system and the US dollar have become more dominant, not less.

• See above.

• The dollar will be utilized more, not less.

• If you believe that the world will stay connected through technology, that we will progress through technology, that businesses will be built using technology, you will likely be partnering with U.S. technology firms. Because:

  • Greater trust and legal protections working with these firms compared to any company within the Chinese legal system.

  • Greater innovation because of resources and talent.

  • Small businesses globally will desire to align with these companies.

  • Size, scale, money, and power will allow these companies to influence global politics.

  • This increases the wealth of the United States.

  • Adoption of these new tools will help build businesses globally and domestically, and it could increase margins as companies become more efficient.

• Even though it is clear in many parts of the world that people do not like the way Trump nor the USA does business, pragmatism will take hold. People want peace and security, parents desire hope for their children, and businesses want to make money. Parents try to get their children to the USA and Europe because of this desire, and because it cannot be found in their own countries.

  • People originally from Venezuela, Cuba, and perhaps Iran may return to build businesses in these countries.

  • The middle east may move on and normalize relations with Israel. Hopefully it allows for more trust, and a path forward that brings hope on both sides.

  • A peace dividend would be very positive for global growth.

• More global growth may bring more countries into partnership with the USA and open countries aligned with it.

  • This could be negative for assets that are held for safety. Such as gold which has had a meteoric rise.

  • It could be positive for commodities businesses and the energy sector.

  • It could be positive for emerging markets generally as businesses are built in places with much upside. This could be a ripe hunting ground for investment outside of the USA but because of the changes the USA is implementing.

• Europe will ultimately align more closely with the USA and someday strengthen its leadership to focus on common goals. Current policy looks haphazard and a person like President Trump won’t wait for coherent policy.

  • Europe can transform once it recognizes their much-reduced leverage in the global economy.

  • Trying to stand up and regulate US tech companies will be increasingly difficult.

  • Europe will likely eventually stand up to Chinese exports which seek to dominate global supply chains. This could allow for new engineering and design innovation.

  • A stronger European economy will allow for greater defense of European ideals.

  • The world already recognizes how amazing European food, art, culture and general living is in comparison to many parts of the USA. It cannot be preserved without strength in its identity, defense, and economy.

• With mid-term elections coming up in the USA, I suspect the US administration will try to stimulate the economy domestically. And, with inflation and inflation expectations falling, this could lead to more accommodative monetary policy.

  • This is likely a good combination for equity markets generally.

  • This could be positive for the shares of smaller quality businesses.

The Path of Least Resistance

My job for our own wealth, and the wealth of the partner families we serve is to navigate the opportunities available subject to the risks involved.

From my perspective, the path of USA power building, as I have been describing for the past couple of years, is accelerating, not waning. Could this change? Of course, show me the evidence, and I will change the portfolio. That is the benefit of reflecting and expressing viewpoints in liquid, public market portfolios. We change when the evidence changes.

Summary

There will be debates as to the legality of the US Administrations actions in Venezuela. There will also be debate about how the USA is going about influencing other countries. However, my job is to ask the right questions as it pertains to financial markets, and to adjust probabilities accordingly.

From my standpoint, the questions (and highly simplified answers) are:

• Does it matter what happens in court to Maduro and his wife?

  • No, he will not be president of Venezuela anymore which is most important.

• Does this increase the likelihood of significant US influence in Latin America?

  • Yes, and this is likely to be better for economic prosperity which should result in better outcomes for Venezuelans.

• Does this increase the likelihood that governments in Iran and Cuba fall?

  • Yes, and it follows that economic prosperity would also be more positive, which should result in better outcomes for the general population.

• Does this reduce the power and influence of China and Russia in the Mid East and the Americas?

  • Yes. Which in turn increases the power and influence of the US globally.

• Does it make a China invasion of Taiwan more likely?

  • Not sure, but I suspect no. China has too many problems of its own domestically, and their military has no practical experience in such situations. It’s very complicated.

• On balance, if there is more safety, security, and economic opportunity, does this make more countries more peaceful and create more global partnerships?

  • Yes, and this likely broadens out global growth. It is also likely to reduce the desperation of many immigrants having to flee hostile regimes.

I would love to hear your thoughts, please drop me a line!

Best regards and thank you for your trust,

Joe

i i

i Investment advice offered through Stratos Wealth Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Stratos Wealth Advisors, LLC and August Wealth Advisors are separate entities.

Trading instructions sent via email, fax or voicemail will not be honored. There is no assurance that these messages can be retrieved on a timely basis, nor is there any sure method of confirming the customers identity.

The information contained in this email message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. No reader should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence.

The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but August Wealth Advisors makes no representation about their timeliness, accuracy or completeness. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.