A Greener Future
September 17, 2026
“The judgement of history is written in the long shadow a leader leaves behind, not in the noise of their own era.”
-Unknown
Here is a question I would like you to consider:
What are the common traits among the people below?
Abraham Lincoln
Winston Churchill
Joan of Arc
Elon Musk
Mother Teresa
On the surface, you might say they are vastly different, but I immediately see more similarities than differences.
The reason I have been thinking about this group of people is because of some recent conversations regarding Elon Musk. He is a polarizing figure that elicits emotion in people to the point of causing a visceral reaction.
I see their personalities as similar because:
Unshakable sense of mission.
Willingness to be isolated for their beliefs.
Polarizing presence (disliked in their time in history).
Self-belief bordering on destiny.
They were uniquely placed in history, right time, right place, bestowed with unique gifts, and executed their mission with relentlessness.
To check my own views, I ran the same question through a few of my Artificial Intelligence models, and the answers were all like the points I make above (I was a little surprised actually). They also added that each of them had a very high-risk tolerance. In the example of Joan of Arc and Abraham Lincoln they gave their lives to their cause directly, and the others would certainly have prioritized their mission as vastly more important than their own life.
As you know, people’s judgements and emotions fascinate me. I don’t always understand why people weigh their own feelings as important, but it is an important part (as you know by now) of our investment process at August Wealth.
Consider the polarizing figure that is Elon Musk. He seems to say crazy things, have crazy ideas, is audacious, and he is unlike almost anyone else. His primary motivation for 25 years was and is sustainable energy because he saw the waste, unsustainability, and climate threat from the 100+ years of burning fossil fuels for energy. This era for fossil fuels looks to me to be coming to an end in large part because of Elon Musk’s contributions.
Does how we feel about someone really matter? If he says something offensive, if he is callous, does it matter much? I really don’t have an opinion on Elon Musk as a person; I don’t know him. But I contend that people’s judgement of him is not the most important consideration. How do our feelings about him matter?
I was recently at a wedding in Europe, and I had a discussion with a gentleman who was railing against Musk because of his level of wealth, his lack of charitable donations, his (seemingly radical) speech, and his promotion of cutting US Aid. I commented that perhaps all his judgement of what makes Elon Musk a potential villain is true, but I also asked why he thought his opinion mattered so much? Why put energy and weight into personal judgement that might be wrong, and how will that energy make a difference anyhow? Many people that used to love him, now hate him, but this is just our own judgement, feelings, and narrative. He is the same guy with the same messianic mission, and naturally he is going to rub a lot of people the wrong way.
Overemphasizing our own judgements.
The day after our discussion, the very open-minded gentleman sought me out to say he ultimately considered, appreciated, and understood the value of my point. He doesn’t need to like Elon Musk, but it’s worthwhile being grateful for his contributions. He thoughtfully mentioned that despite his flaws, or even perhaps because of them, he accomplishes incredible improvements for sustainability.
I am currently reading Joan of Arc by Mark Twain, and it reminded me of how fickle our judgements are. Human nature continues to baffle and intrigue. Her story is 500 years old; she was revered and then just as quickly she was cast out. Neither the praise nor the condemnation mattered to her. She wasn’t bothered by errors of human judgement; she accomplished her mission with no self-doubt. She saved France and is today revered as the patron Saint of France. At the time, she was a threat to the prevailing power structure, and they killed her.
We don’t have the answers. We make judgements about what we think must happen to solve this problem or that problem, but rarely do we see the solution that never occurred to us in the first place. There are very few people that are open-minded enough to see novel solutions.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” -Mark Twain
Asking the right questions is more valuable than coming to definitive judgements.
Musk pursues wealth to ruthlessly pursue (his) goals for the future. Improvements in self-drive, robotics, communication, defense, rockets, etc. will all benefit the United States (assuming technological advancement is a common good; another debatable point perhaps). The media talks about his wealth as a rich/poor divide, or what he is supposed to do with his money. This is nonsensical. I have watched Elon Musk for the past 25 years navigate all manner of problems in finance; people management, the media, engineering, and the pattern is clear: His motivation has nothing to do with “making money” in the traditional sense. He must have money and control to accomplish his goals; that’s it! Those of us that might argue he should use his money for charitable purposes are just our own views of what he should do, but if he listened to the ideas of the masses, would he have started us on the path to solving climate change? Would he have created a new space industry?
In any event, I am neither trying to cheerlead nor vilify Elon Musk. I just recognize that it took a person like him, including his flaws, to help solve climate change and move the marginal cost of energy towards zero! You may think his thoughts are crazy, and some of them might be, but you cannot be sure, and that is why you should be careful of your judgements or feelings about him.
He is likely one of the most impactful American immigrants in the history of the USA, and it’s likely a net positive that he is a US citizen and not a member of the Chinese Communist Party.
A greener future is starting to emerge.
Consider, once a switch is made to solar and batteries and away from burning oil and gas for energy, the switch becomes permanent. It makes no sense to go back to burning fuel.
For example: I have a friend and client in Colorado (thanks KH and AH) with rooftop solar panels which power their electric cars, and Tesla battery packs that store energy for household appliances. As a result, they barely use fossil fuels for energy.
Examples like this are growing all over the world, and that marginal change is important. As the price of fossil fuels stays elevated due to short term supply issues, it accelerates the incentive to switch to solar and battery. This change is starting to really accelerate globally.
Once the switch happens, you could have unlimited energy from the sun if you can store it in batteries. This is why Tesla is going full speed ahead on advancing battery technology. Once the equipment is purchased (fixed cost), your marginal cost of producing energy in the future moves towards zero!
This may not seem like new information but look at the rate at which the switch is happening. One of August Wealth’s partners in commodities research (thanks SR) has brought this to our attention, and thanks to Ashley Fox for putting this chart pack together.
The charts below highlight how quickly adoption is accelerating. While it doesn’t mean that the fossil fuel industry dies overnight, rest assured, it will likely die. By the looks of it, it will happen much faster than anticipated, and that will likely be great news for the climate, environment, health outcomes, and productivity.
We see these developments as very meaningful changes for improving our Earth’s environment.
Many clients used to argue that we needed to stop using fossil fuels, and that we at August Wealth should not invest in fossil fuel companies. Of course, six years ago, I pointed out how unrealistic this was. Wanting me to stop investing for them in industries that they themselves were supporting like airplane travel, automobiles, heating/cooling, was not entirely rational. However, now may be the time to stop investing in fossil fuel companies. But not because of an Environmental or Socially Conscious (ESG) marketing campaign.
Some of us thought we had the answers, we didn’t. This change isn’t happening because we stopped using fossil fuels, and it’s not happening because people stopped investing in oil companies. It’s occurring because an individual saw fossil fuels as completely unsustainable, wasteful, expensive, and damaging to our environment, and then did something about it. An entirely new industry was created, and it is being widely adopted. I believe the switch is now likely to be inevitable, and it’s going to result in positive change for our environment.
Our current thoughts and portfolio adjustments:
All the technological developments we are experiencing are likely to be disinflationary in the coming years.
So, although the current narrative is of rising inflation and interest rates, we are finding the probable reality in the future to be the opposite.
While we see some short term inflationary impulses due to the Iran war, Ukraine war, and Ai datacenter buildout, we view the medium term as a disinflationary environment:
Innovations in defense technology.
Innovations in energy technology.
Innovations in health care delivery.
Innovations in space and communications technology.
Innovations in robotics include full self-drive automobiles, taxis, and trucks.
These innovations will very likely lead to lower prices and better health outcomes.
However, there is short-term noise which needs to be accounted for:
Midterm elections
War continues for time being.
Political noise around Ai and data centers.
Short term inflation impulses.
Higher interest rates.
The potential for some slowdown in certain parts of the economy.
Stocks:
We have been reducing our stock market allocation in the past month.
You may recall we increased our allocation to stocks during the equity market selloff in spring of 2025 on President Trump’s tariff announcements.
We have benefited from this, and although we remain positive long term, we recognize short term uncertainty rising, and we will patiently hunt for the many new opportunities which will arise.
Fossil Fuels:
Our allocation to fossil fuel companies have benefited from the Iran war (which we anticipated), but we believe the Iranian government is incentivized to end the war to survive. Their economy is collapsing, and there are limits as to any country’s ability to function. The USA and Iran’s gulf neighbors can just continue to apply pressure until change occurs, and it is highly probable that it will.
We are more cautious about the prospects for most of the fossil fuel industry and commodity prices generally. An end to the wars in Ukraine and Iran is increasingly likely, and that will lead to lower commodity prices and lower inflation.
China:
China’s attempts to become a world “leader” and alternative to the USA “instability” looks increasingly disingenuous (finally) to much of the world. There is growing recognition across the world that China is looking to control and weaponize supply chains in multiple industries.
But most countries (especially China) are reliant on the United States consumer. Other countries outside of China, Russia, Iran axis are reliant on the USA for defense (because of the China, Russia, Iran axis. China’s talk of not meddling in the affairs of other countries is ringing increasingly hollow because of its support of Russia’s meddling in Ukraine and Iran looking to eradicate Israel.
There are increasing signs of domestic economic weakness, and some increasing signs of social media dissent. China continues to try and control markets and its people. They have just increased travel restrictions for the population that works in sensitive technology industries.
China appears to be applying pressure on Iran to stop shooting at tankers in the Strait of Hormuz as they need commodities and trade to start flowing freely again. Commodity price pressure is a big part of why interest rates are rising globally, and China needs the world to continue to grow to sell its exports.
Mining Companies:
We are cautious about mining companies. Many think this industry is a sure thing because of energy needs and the data center build out. This investment theme is very popular, but it’s a very complex industry with many factors which are potentially not being fully considered.We also continue to avoid gold and gold mining companies for reasons cited in our previous monthly commentary.
US Government Bonds:
In the meantime, interest rates have risen substantially because of concerns around fiscal deficits and inflation. We understand the concerns, and rates now reflect those concerns. Given our medium-term probability of inflation declines, we see higher rates as an opportunity to invest.
The current yield on 10-year US Government bonds guarantees returns of approximately 5% per year and is not subject to state and local income tax. We view this as an opportunity to start investing in this US government fixed return. This is a big change for us. Recall in 2020 and 2021, our advice was to avoid fixed income investments even if you were retired (against industry advice) because interest rates on 10-year US government bonds were less than 1% and inflation was almost certain to rise (it did). As inflation increased, interest rates increased with it (as interest rates rise, the price of bonds fall). It was a terrible investment.
Today, however, the 10-year bonds yield 5%! Inflation is likely to come down in the coming years. Now is the time to start putting them in your portfolio. We are doing just that. It is lower risk than owning stocks, it provides a guaranteed income, and if inflation comes down in the coming years (as we suspect), so will interest rates (as interest rates fall, the price of bonds goes up).
Some readers (particularly prospective clients) have expressed interest in learning more about specific adjustments in our portfolios. If you would like to learn more, please reach out to the August Wealth team; we are happy to share more and take you through our rigorous investment process and how it may serve you.
In addition, I want to introduce our newest member of the August Wealth Team. Robbie Newman joins us as a wealth advisor in Westport, CT. He has over 20 years of experience with Morgan Stanley and UBS. He is a fixed income and corporate bond specialist. He has a strong desire to help and serve families by alleviating their anxiety around finance, investment, and estate planning. He fits in well with our culture of serving others, and his skill set is an excellent complement to the team. Please wish him a warm welcome.
Thank you,
Joe
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